Evaluating Technical Trading Strategies in US Stocks: Insights From Data-Snooping Test
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33423/jaf.v25i1.7511Keywords:
accounting, finance, technical trading strategies, data snooping bias, US stocksAbstract
Our comprehensive evaluation examines the in-sample and out-of-sample effectiveness of technical trading strategies for Apple Computer Inc (AAPL), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), and Nvidia Corp (NVDA) over the period from January 2000 to December 2022. Utilizing advanced methods such as reality checks and stepwise tests, we address the potential data-snooping bias—a scenario where apparently profitable strategies might arise by chance rather than through genuine predictive accuracy. Despite rigorous analytical techniques, our findings indicate an inability to identify any technical trading strategies that yield consistent profits in both the in-sample and out-of-sample periods. Further analysis, with a specific cutoff established in February 2016 and incorporating corrections for data snooping, consistently demonstrates the unprofitability of these strategies. This highlights a significant challenge in financial markets: the intrinsic difficulty in identifying technical trading strategies that can consistently produce profitable outcomes over time. Our conclusions underscore the complexities inherent in technical analysis and the substantial obstacles in deriving actionable insights for stock market trading based on technical trading frameworks.
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