Nigeria’s Food Prospects in 2050: A Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation

Abstract

This paper extends earlier work on Nigeria ’s failure to improve living standards for its population when compared with China and South Korea since 1960. With historically low rates of growth in per capita income over the 60-year interval when compared with these two countries and the elevated growth rate in Nigeria ’s population to 2050 projected by the United Nations Population Division and others, this paper explores the consequences of the intersection of these two important “drivers” of food consumption on Nigeria ’s prospects for food security. Because of Nigeria ’s poor growth prospects, in part the result of its fast growing population, the country’s dependency on food imports is likely to increase significantly by mid-century. Allocating its scarce foreign exchange, derived mostly from oil exports, in order to feed its population will negatively impact Nigeria’s ability to modernize its agricultural sector specifically, and, more generally, the country’s physical and social infrastructure that would improve living standards and growth prospects.