Probabilistic Scenarios for Private Health Care Entities: Analysis of Medical and Administrative Management

Abstract

The strategic prospective is a convergence of diverse disciplinary fields, that applied to private health entities at a national level allows to consider the probable future of these companies; This method is based on the use of three softwares: the first called Micmac aims to prioritize the 6 main influential and dependent variables, by using a table of two inputs called structural analysis matrix, the second program called Mactor values relationships of force among the 30 identified actors, studying the convergences and divergences with respect to the associated objectives. In addition, the games of actors are constructed to formulate hypotheses of the system under study. Once established, the Delphi methodology is used. Finally, in the Smic Prob-Expert methodology, the simple and conditioned probabilities of events are determined, represented in 64 possible scenarios and identifying the normative trends, allowing to discern the probabilities of the entities of the sector.